Powerful CPUs will allow vendors to turn handsets into gaming consoles, but slower growth will also force them to focus on improving their less-expensive products
In 2013 smartphone shipments were expected to surpass one billion units for the first time, thanks to impressive 39 percent growth year-on-year, according to IDC. Shipments are expected to continue to grow by almost 20 percent in 2014, so vendors must work harder to get users to upgrade. Here are some of the trends that will shape the market in 2014:
Higher screen resolutions
Larger screens with higher resolutions have been one of the biggest smartphone trends in the past couple years, and that shows few signs of abating. For example, LG’s Display unit has developed a 5.5in screen for next-generation smartphones with a 2560x1440-pixel resolution.
That combination equals a density of 538ppi (pixels per inch), which compares to the HTC One’s 468ppi on a 4.7in screen and the Samsung’s Galaxy S4’s 441ppi on a 5in screen. The higher resolution allows users to see a full view of a desktop web page without any image distortion, said LG. Whether other vendors follow suit remains to be seen, but Samsung is reportedly working on a smaller display with the same resolution.
LTE picks up pace
While LTE is still in its infancy in many parts of the world, operators have started to test a technology called carrier aggregation to o ffer faster download speeds. It allows networks to devote more resources to some users by treating two channels in the same or different frequency bands as if they were one.
EE is testing two times 20MHz to reach 300Mbps, which is the theoretical maximum. Vodafone and Telefónica in Germany, as well as SK Telecom in South Korea, are testing one 10MHz channel plus one 20MHz channel for up to 225Mbps. The South Korean operator was the first to o er carrier aggregation in June 2013, but only at speeds that can be matched by the fastest regular LTE networks.
EE expects the first commercial 300Mbps routers will be introduced by the middle of 2014, with smartphones arriving in the second half of the year. New LTE chipsets will also open the door for 4G phones that cost less.
A game console in disguise
Smartphones have had a profound effect on the gaming sector by making portable devices such as the Sony PSP and the Nintendo 3DS less appealing. As smartphones become even more powerful in 2014, vendors such as Samsung and Apple will go after a larger share of the gaming market.
Qualcomm recently announced the Snapdragon 805 processor with the Adreno 420 GPU. With up to 40 percent graphics and compute performance improvement over its predecessor, the GPU enables “advanced console quality gaming on Ultra HD or 4K displays, which is beyond what most consumers have in their living rooms”, according to Qualcomm.
The Snapdragon 805 processor, which runs four cores at up to 2.5GHz, is already available in small volumes and is expected to be available in commercial devices in the first half of 2014. 2014 will also see at least one major vendor emphasise that a new smartphone can be transformed into a PC-like device, CCS Insight expects. The device will come with a second interface when deployed as a computer, which is something on which Canonical has been working with Ubuntu. However, it will enjoy limited success, said CCS Insight.
More focus on low-end devices
Even though higher resolutions and faster network connections and processors will be enough to persuade some people to buy a new high-end smartphone, that segment of the market has plateaued. The key driver behind smartphone growth in the years ahead will be an expected price decrease, according to IDC.
In 2013, the average sales price for a smartphone was $337, down about 13 percent from $387 in 2012. This trend will continue and prices will drop to $265 by 2017, according to the research company. For vendors, this means finding a balance between performance, price and making a profit. But for users, this will result in more bang for their buck, and the di fference between high-end and much cheaper phones will shrink.
The Motorola Moto G has already set a benchmark for phones that cost under £150 with its quad-core processor and 4.5in HD screen, and puts pressure on vendors such as Samsung and LG to come up with something better.
Motorola Mobility, which has been struggling, seems to have a hit with the Moto G. The smartphone has already had a major impact, despite being on sale for only a short time, according to Magnus Ahlqvist, Motorola corporate vice president for Europe, Middle East and Africa.
One thing that’s missing from the Moto G’s spec sheet is LTE, which is still too expensive for vendors to add to their low-end products. But that is likely to change as competition heats up in the chipset market. MediaTek is getting ready to launch its first SoCs (system-on-a-chips) with LTE, which is expected to help push the price for a smartphone with LTE below £200 without a contract during 2014.
